The troika returns to Cyprus

A DELEGATION from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), will visit Cyprus between 25 and 28 September for its third post-programme surveillance following the island’s successful exit from the economic adjustment programme last year.

The troika mission will examine a range of issues relating to the economy, public finances, reforms and the financial sector.

The troika mission will examine the state of the Cypriot economy, public finances and the projections on their progress, the 2018 state budget and structural reforms that are underway.

The structural reforms relate to the implementation of the national health system, the six bills for modernising public administration, local government reform, establishment of a National Investment Fund and the exploitation of state property.

During their contacts with the Central Bank, the troika representatives will focus on the non-performing loans and their restructuring.

The technocrats are expected to meet with the Minister of Finance Harris Georgiades and the Central Bank Governor Chrystalla Georgadji.

Cyprus is now subject to post-programme surveillance until at least 75% of the financial assistance it received as part of the bailout agreement has been repaid.

John Hourican “annoyed and impatient”

John Hourican "annoyed and impatient"THE BANK of Cyprus’ CEO John Hourican said that he is beginning to grow impatient with those borrowers who are able to repay their debt but opt not to do so, as the bank, having completed its post crisis shrink-to-strength strategy now wants to grow.

Hourican who was commenting in an interview with the Cyprus News Agency (CNA) on Sunday, said that a minority of borrowers not servicing their loans delay doing so in an attempt to benefit from the property market recovery at a later stage.

“And that does make me impatient and makes me annoyed because we had four years and they should have come to the table and they should be in our offices trying to do a deal with us, not trying to buy more time, not trying sort of time us out in the way the legislation allows it and the courts allow it,” he said, and repeated his latest appeal to Cypriot society not to tolerate strategic defaulters any more. “This country still has a stain on its reputation for the sheer non-payment of loans and the offended parties in the non-payment of loans are the depositors of the bank”.

Bank of Cyprus, the island’s largest lender, pioneered the reduction in non-performing loans by setting up months after the banking and fiscal crisis of 2013 a specialised recovery and restructuring unit. As a result, the lender reduced its non-performing loans stock in June to €9.7 billion or half of its total loan book from over €15 billion in September 2014. Moody’s Investors Service said two years ago that it estimates that up to one in five borrowers in Cyprus may be a strategic defaulter taking advantage of the island’s legislation.

Irish banker John Hourican who joined the bank in late 2013, months after it completed its recapitalisation by converting almost half of the uninsured customer deposits into equity, said that the lender will need years to organically reduce its remaining non-performing loans stock. After initially successfully completing restructuring agreements with major corporate borrowers and with the economy expanding for the third consecutive year, Hourican acknowledged that the remaining cases of small and medium size enterprises and retail customers are more difficult as four in ten restructured loans re-default.

“The stress in households is still real and still in the system,” he said.

According to the Ministry of Finance’s latest forecast, the Cypriot economy, which exited in 2015 a prolonged recession, is expected to expand 3.6 per cent this year after growing 2.8 per cent last year, helping reduce the unemployment rate from around 11 per cent this year to 9.5 per cent next year.

Still, the lender, which increased in August its accumulated provisions to €4.6 billion or 48 per cent of its non-performing loans, is not necessarily considering resorting to the sale of loans to reduce its delinquent loan stock, even as it remains on the table, Hourican added. While it could remove faster bad loans from the bank’s balance sheet, it could not be the right thing for the country and society, he said.

“We posted an additional €500m of our capital against our non-performing loans in order to create the possibility of loan sales because we can protect the bank’s capital more by slowly marching down non-performing loans but that takes a long time,” he said.

“We have to make sure the debt is well serviced, that it is sustainable, that the bank can survive and that there is price taker on the other side,” he remarked. “The sale of non-performing loans is a tool but the sale of non-performing loans is an easy to say word and a very difficult thing to achieve”.

He also said that “ultimately” it was he and the bank’s board of directors who took the decision to increase provisioning levels “because we thought it was the right thing to do given the progress we have made to this date”.

“We posted the additional €500m million in order to create a further option to explore potential trades because they will be more expensive than the natural organic march down and some of that pressure would have come from the European Central Bank no question”.

“It is a decision that I and the Board took because we thought it was the right thing to do given the progress we have made to this date,” he said.

Hourican, known for not mincing his words often and angering Cypriot politicians in the past who expressed fears over the provisions of the law on the sale of loans passed by the parliament less than two years ago as part of Cyprus’s bailout terms, dismissed this type of concerns.

“Words like vulture funds etc. are politically convenient tag names that are used by people who don’t want things to change and actually have to grow up a little bit more,” he said adding that the lender will have to take into account in addition to its social responsibility and the mood of the society, the fact that its depositors were bailed in four years ago.

The bank which generated last year a €64m after tax profit compared to a €438m after tax loss the year before, posted in the first six months of the year a €554m loss, largely caused by the increase in provisions, expects to return next year to profitability.

After having sold most of its non-core business abroad, as part of its shrink-to-strength strategy, the bank seeks to exploit opportunities at home as economic growth is consolidating, Hourican said.

Already, Bank of Cyprus, which in January had its stock listed on the London Stock Exchange, extended €1bn in fresh lending last year and another €845m in the first six months of 2017 alone, he said.

“I would expect that trend to continue and our balance sheet to stop shrinking as we head into 2018,” the former Royal Bank of Scotland executive said.

For now, a figure that currently is on the rise in the bank’s balance sheet is its stock in immovable property – a by-product of debt-to-asset swaps – may continue to rise as Bank of Cyprus will continue on-boarding real estate as part of restructuring agreements, Hourican said.

While their value rose meanwhile to €1.5 billion and the bank’s real estate management unit (REMU) which sold assets worth €155m alone in 2016, almost doubled the amount this year, the bank is considering other possibilities to further speed up the reduction of this type of assets, he said.

“We think there are some really smart solutions we can bring, I am not ready to announce them but we are having a look at further accelerating the reduction of real estate exposures,” Hourican said. “I am not in the business of owning real estate. I am accidentally owning real estate because of the bad behaviour of my borrowers”.

The full interview with John Hourican

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9a18mOjF9A&w=470&rel=0]

How much have property prices changed?

How much have Cyprus property prices changed?SINCE its introduction in the fourth quarter of 2009 the RICS (Cyprus) Property Price Index has reported movements in property prices and rents on a quarterly basis using a methodology produced by Reading University in the UK.

The thirtieth edition of the Index, which was issued last month, reported that the average price of residential apartments and houses across the island rose by 1.3% and 2.3% respectively during the first quarter of 2017.

However, to put these figures in perspective, the following chart indicates how much property prices have changed since the first edition of the Index was published for the fourth quarter of 2009.

Location Type 2009 Q4
Price (€)
2017 Q1
Price (€)
Percentage
Change
Nicosia Apartments 171,155 109,900 -35.79%
Houses 523,438 381,986 -27.02%
Retail 1,079,167 520,678 -51.75%
Warehouse 2,280,000 1,155,976 -49.30%
Office 758,000 547,724 -27.74%
Limassol Apartments 177,978 113,229 -36.38%
Houses 496,250 324,032 -34.70%
Retail 709,722 464,700 -34.52%
Warehouse 2,700,000 1,705,199 -36.84%
Office 600,000 417,681 -30.39%
Larnaca Apartments 184,492 126,122 -31.64%
Houses 438,750 293,066 -33.20%
Retail 641,667 298,478 -53.48%
Warehouse 1,933,333 1,327,007 -31.36%
Office 480,000 315,187 -34.34%
Paphos Apartments 154,917 97,341 -37.17%
Houses 460,417 386,679 -16.02%
Retail 602,778 281,220 -53.35%
Warehouse 1,405,000 1,079,757 -23.15%
Office 523,333 330,663 -36.82%
Famagusta/Paralimni Apartments 153,790 83,626 -45.62%
Houses 412,500 320,916 -22.20%
Retail 408,333 215,987 -47.11%
Warehouse 1,200,000 827,862 -31.01%
Office 337,500 215,127 -36.26%
Cyprus (average) Apartments 168,466 106,044 -37.05%
Houses 466,271 341,336 -26.79%
Retail 688,333 356,213 -48.25%
Warehouse 1,903,667 1,219,160 -35.96%
Office 539,767 365,276 -32.33%

Prices of residential houses and apartments rose by 53.7% during the first quarter of 2006 and the third quarter of 2008, but then fell 9.4% by the end of the fourth quarter of 2010 as the property bubble burst.

Clearly, property prices still have a long way to go to recover lost ground.

New home building permits up in June

New home building permitsTHE NUMBER of building permits authorised in Cyprus during June 2017 stood at 502 compared with the 445 authorised during the same period in the previous year; an increase of 12.8% according to official figures released by the Cyprus Statistical Service.

The total value of these permits rose by 57.9% to €141.2 million compared to June 2016, while their total area rose by 11.1% to 101.5 thousand square metres.

During June 2017, building permits were issued for:

  • Residential buildings – 369 permits
  • Non-residential buildings – 92 permits
  • Civil engineering projects – 15 permits
  • Division of plots of land – 21 permits
  • Road construction – 5 permits

During the first half of 2017, 2,870 building permits were issued compared to 2,611 in the first half of 2016; an increase of 9.9%

The total value of these permits increased by 33.7% and the total area by 31.1%.

Building permits for new homes

The 367 residential building permits approved in June provided for the construction of 381 new homes comprising 206 single houses and 175 multiple housing units (such as apartments, semis, townhouses and other residential complexes); an increase of 32.8% compared with June 2016 when permits were issued for the construction of 287 new homes.

Building Permits Issued for the Construction of New Homes (Number of Dwellings)

Month 2016
(Dwellings)
2017
(Dwellings)
Increase/
Decrease
%age
Change
January 243 381 138 56.8%
February 312 383 71 22.8%
March 306 412 106 34.6%
April 201 289 88 43.8%
May 278 424 146 52.5%
June 287 381 94 32.8%
Totals 1,627 2,270 643 39.5%

During the first half of 2017, 2,870 building permits were issued compared to 2,611 in the first half of 2016. The total value of these permits increased by 33.7% and their total area by 31.1%. The number of new homes rose by 39.5%.

According to the Cyprus Statistical Service, building permits constitute a leading indicator of future activity in the construction sector.

Rise in overseas property sales continues

Rise in overseas property sales continuesAUGUST saw the number of overseas property sales in Cyprus rise by 65 per cent compared to August 2016 according to official figures published by the Department of Lands and Surveys.

Of the 572 contracts for the sale of immovable property that were deposited at Land Registry offices across Cyprus in August, 399 (69.8%) were deposited by Cypriot purchasers and 173 (30.2%) were deposited by overseas property purchasers.

Overseas property sales

With the exception of Nicosia, where sales were almost the same as August 2016, sales rose in all districts. In percentage terms, Famagusta lead the way with sales increasing by 144%, while in Larnaca, Paphos and Limassol rose by 79%, 65% and 46% respectively.

Overseas Property Sale Contracts – 2016/2017 Comparison

District Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nicosia 2016 11
9
10
10 14 6 8 6 6 10 13 28
2017 9
4
6
18 15 12 15 6
Famagusta 2016 2 4 12
2
0
27
8 9 10 10 10 15
2017 1 2 16 6 11 15 29 22
Larnaca 2016 10 12 36
36
10
45
32 14 31 30 40 39
2017 25 20 28 20 43 26 41 25
Limassol 2016 24 21 52
44
19
60
64 28 53 68 53 125
2017 35 47 56 40 96 77 75 41
Paphos 2016 20 28 47
42
15
57 79 48 29 43 72 147
2017 23 40 80 43 95 78 91 79
Totals 2016 67 74 157
134
58
195
191 105 129 161 188 354
2017 93 113 186 127 260 208 251 173

During the first eight months of 2017, property sales to the overseas market have risen 44% compared with the same period last year to reach a total of 1,413.

(During August Title Deeds for 75 properties were transferred to overseas buyers bringing the total number of transfers for the year to date to 618.)

Domestic property sales

Sales of Cyprus property to the domestic market in August rose by 15% compared to August 2016.

Although sales in Famagusta, Paphos and Larnaca fell by 22%, 8% and 6% respectively, these falls were outweighed by increased sales in Limassol (58%) and Nicosia (21%).

Domestic Property Sale Contracts – 2016/2017 Comparison

District Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nicosia 2016 43
70
10
69 68 92 94 58 75 70 73 116
2017 63 69
71
62
103
150
109
70
Famagusta 2016 20 31 21
33
24 7 19 32 22 37 9 72
2017 20 17 24 23 27
31 30
25
Larnaca 2016 68 96 85
91
93 75 91 67 90 81 74 114
2017 77 80 85 49 76
70 62
63
Limassol 2016 68 158 145
122
126 162 156 101 142 202 196 307
2017 97 130 176 152 202
227 194
160
Paphos 2016 61 72 59
65
105 126 74 88 98 83 111 171
2017 73 47 82 93 88
157 93
81
Totals 2016 260 427 382
380
416
462
434 346 427 473 463 780
2017 330 343 438
379 496
636 488
399

During the first eight months of 2017 property sales to the domestic market have risen 13% compared with the same period last year to reach a total of 3,508. However an unknown number of these relate to properties acquired by the banks as part of loan restructurings, recoveries and debt-to-asset swaps agreed between the banks and defaulting borrowers.

Cyprus Property Sale Contracts 2000 – 2017

Year Overseas Sales Domestic Sales Percentage
Overseas Sales
Total
Sales
2000 450 12,214 3.6% 12,664
2001 1,207 12,849 8.6% 14,056
2002 2,548 14,111 15.3% 16,659
2003 3,981 15,294 20.7% 19,275
2004 5,384 11,947 31.1% 17,331
2005 6,485 10,106 39.1% 16,591
2006 8,355 8,598 49.3% 16,953
2007 11,281 9,964 53.1% 21,245
2008 6,636 8,031 45.2% 14,667
2009 1,761 6,409 21.6% 8,170
2010 2,030 6,568 23.6% 8,598
2011 1,652 5,366 23.5% 7,018
2012 1,476 4,793 23.5% 6,269
2013 1,017 2,750 27.0% 3,767
2014 1,193 3,334 26.4% 4,527
2015 1,349 3,603 27.2% 4,952
2016
1,813 5,250 25.7% 7,063
2017 (Aug) 1,413 3,508 28.7% 4,921
Totals
60,031 144,695 29.3% 204,726

August property sales up 27 per cent

Cyprus property sales up 27 per centTHE NUMBER of property sales in Cyprus during August rose 27 per cent compared to August 2016 according to official statistics published by the Department of Lands and Surveys earlier today.

This rise follows an 18% increase in July, a 28% increase in June, and a 59% increase in May.

During August a total of 572 contracts for the sale of residential and commercial properties and land (building plots and fields) were deposited at Land Registry offices across Cyprus, compared with the 451 deposited in July 2016.

Sales rose in all districts with Limassol leading the way with sales up 56% compared with August 2016. Sales in Nicosia (the capital) rose by 19% and sales in Paphos rose 18%. Meanwhile sales in Famagusta and Larnaca rose by 15% and 9% respectively.

Total Property Sale Contracts – 2016/2017 Comparison

District Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nicosia 2016 54
79
82
79 82 98 102 64 81 80 86 144
2017 72 73 79 80 118 162 124 76
Famagusta 2016 22
35 33
35
24 34
27 41 32 47 19 87
2017 21 19 40 29 38 46 59 47
Larnaca 2016 78
108 121
127
103 120
123 81 121 111 114 153
2017 102 100 113 69 119 96 103 88
Limassol 2016 92
179 197
166
145 222
220 129 195 270 249 432
2017 132 177 232 192 298 304 289 201
Paphos 2016 81
100 106
107
120 183
153 136 127 126 183 318
2017 96 87 162 136 183 235 184 160
Totals 2016 327
501 539
514
474 657
625 451 556 634 651 1,134
2017 423 456 626 506 756 843 739 572

During the first eight months of 2017, the number of sales contracts deposited at Land Registry offices has risen 20% compared to the same period last year. With the exception of Larnaca, where sales during the eight months have fallen 8%, property sales have increased in all districts.

(An unknown number of the property sales contracts reported above relate to properties acquired by the banks as part of loan restructurings, recoveries and debt-to-asset swaps agreed between the banks and defaulting borrowers.)